Announcement SV Monotype Suspect #3: Lucky Strike (Urshifu-S Suspect)

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Also lol at Wisp Ceruledge, Garry the goat.

Wait, does Ghost have to resort to Colbur Wisp Ceruledge now?

I am pro ban however I should clarify most of the time ghost can deal with urshifu only running sub+draining kiss with spectrier unless it ends up getting chipped down by hazards or whatever else or you just guess wrong with sub a few times because that is what "outplaying" sucker punch involves when you are weak to dark stab. You can also run mimikyu which handles urshifu fairly well if you do not miss the play rough (although I really do not think mimikyu is that good outside of mus where it gets to click super effective play rough). The reason for Colbur is that I thought it was wasteful to run sash on a screens team and to have a switch in to knock off users and other non stab dark moves. This set doesn't even 1v1 urshifu either since it can just go through screens

252+ Atk Black Glasses Urshifu Wicked Blow vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Colbur Berry Ceruledge on a critical hit: 291-343 (100 - 117.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Ceruledge Close Combat vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Urshifu: 278-328 (81.5 - 96.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

This set was originally for kingambit because kingambit is another extremely strong dark type wallbreaker that is more bulky than it reasonably should be that access to sucker punch so it ends up ohkoing offensive mons that are meant to check it (hope I am not being too subtle here).

Regardless I find that a lot of the time that I have to sack something to get my offensive check in or even trying to keep that check healthy from hazards so it can live a +2 move from urshifu or even hard read the swords dance and risk it getting chipped down which often times just means you lose that game. Unless you a running a check with heavy duty boots that can always revenge kill urshifu. +2 sucker punch usually does the job since often times switching in on sr twice is enough for sucker punch to be a roll on something that resists dark like greninja, sneasler or enamorus. So instead of trying to eat a hit often times I just sacrifice a coverage move for something like trick/wisp/sub to actually have a way of beating it somewhat consistently without risking getting sucker punched and dying.
 
congrats on making it to 2 pages everyone! arken is surely proud of us.

i think i have had a change of heart. upon reviewing the arguments of those in the no ban camp with me, i just don't find them to be sufficient enough to keep urshifu in the tier. repeatedly posting (questionable) replays just for them to be picked apart endlessly does not achieve anything. calcs definitely hold more weight in an argumentative standpoint. also going the ad hominem route is another poor argument facility.

but anyways, i think for the overall health and the best interest of the tier is for urshifu to be banned. it's offensive presence is just too overwhelming for most types, i was mistaken to believe that it was just another wallbreaker. the other wallbreakers in this tier don't have the kind of presence that urshifu does. most of the other pro banners highlighted everything else so i'm not gonna restate everything but yeah. i did say i had an open mind in my last post so props to those who spent time laying out their pro ban arguments.
 
Nice! I like replay analysis and I appreciate you taking time out to get these. For next time though I think it'd be a good idea to reach out to someone in the opposite camp AND with multiple people or else it will seem... disingenuous. I trust in both of your characters though and I'm glad it was played in a way that's representative of a normal game so we can actually analyze them.

I won't go through the replays turn by turn looking for the most optimal play in EVERY scenario (one at most) because I don't think that's the right way to approach a replay analysis, rather I will be pointing out qualities and traits that I think highlight Urshifu's effect on the games.

Let's look at the first one, water v fighting, more closely. At preview we see :Toxapex: :Slowking: :Urshifu: :Samurott-Hisui: :Rotom-Wash: :Quagsire: and immediately we can realize that :Urshifu: can always make progress against this team once it's sent out. With hazards on the field, Wicked Blow + CC is a threat to anything that's out in play and to anything that's unfortunate enough to switch in. Combined with :Iron Valiant:, these two do a great job at dismantling this water team. In the game however the fighting team lost... BUT ONLY because of a speed tie that occured at the end.

I notice you made a point about contribution and I think the reason why Urshifu didn't get to contribute as much (despite seeing from preview its effects) is because it simply wasn't played that way when it could have and should have. I think Showl from the start intended to sweep with Urshifu (I might be wrong and misjudged his plan), hence his reservation in sending it out. I believe the better approach in this game would have been to push Urshifu to create holes in the opposition's core, breaking it down slowly and methodically.

I think turn 14 where Showl sends out Valiant against Quagsire's EQ illustrates Showl's apprehension to use Urshifu because taking unnecessary damage on Valiant is obviously NOT desirable yet that was the response he went with. This single turn has long-lasting implications for the remainder of the game, ruins his positioning, and limits his ability to send Valiant out to only TWO more times when there are still FOUR more slower Pokemon it can do work against. I believe the better play here was to send Urshifu out vs Quagsire and pressure it with Wicked Blow while taking at most 32% from EQ. While nothing is guaranteed, Showl is in a MUCH MORE favorable position here. He can simply throw out a Wicked Blow to test the waters and see what you'll allow to get chipped instead and if Quagsire decides to Recover spam, Valiant could come in at any time with less risk of EQ which allows Valiant to preserve its HP while getting a kill. There are still plays to be made, yeah, but no other Pokemon in his team could have exerted the same kind of pressure to give him a position like that. I harped on that turn a lot because it was a critical moment but my thoughts aside that was actually a very enjoyable game.

I spent too long on that one but moving onto the ground v fighting replay, this was actually quite one-sided because of the problem that the core of :Landorus-Therian::Clodsire: :Quagsire: presents to the Showl's team. Between those three Pokemon, not a single one from Showl's can break through... with the exception of Urshifu. Progress quite literally only began with Urshifu's entrance into the game. That's not a "broken" trait by any means but to say it had no contribution is false. Toxic really hampered its effectiveness and ideally the ground team is softened more before it takes it. That game will be tough to win and Showl would have to pull a double switch here and there to really get going but Urshifu's effect shouldn't be downplayed when it's the only one that can break up the core from simply switching into itself.

With flying v fighting it did take some luck to win in the end but we can't exactly count on Hurricane always hitting nor Zapdos to always run it nor having enough speed to check Urshifu in the first place NOR completely rule out the possibility of Sucker Punch killing your Zapdos there and bypassing the Hurricane miss entirely. At that point in the game, what other Pokemon could have exerted the same kind of pressure to win it?

Also lol at Wisp Ceruledge, Garry the goat.

Wait, does Ghost have to resort to Colbur Wisp Ceruledge now?
I overall agree with your analysis. However, the goal of these replays is not to show that balance is unbreakable. Instead, it is to show that balance vs offense is still a competitive environment where the better player will win more often than not. I think that these games were super fun and interactive, and I believe they showcase a competitive and skillful environment where both sides have their chances to win the games. That should be what we all want from a tiering perspective: an setting where we battle and games are decided by who is the better player.

Anyways, I found another super strong battler to test with, you might be familiar with him. Here are the replays:

vs poison (trigenerator defensive poison): https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-1982995238-ciqbtubl9udby9iz9t7gh1lvdrg52bepw

vs dragon (sample dragon team): https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-1983006300-1z6cmkngt34qpertvpypelpt0hhhogepw

vs water (the team i used last time): https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-1983015712-g580hmltg2673z7k8k03n279ymt43fypw

vs ground (same team i used last time): https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-1983020815-0k7npnjye3mcgfzmw5t6zfwzigtgibbpw

vs flying (sample flying): https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-1983028091-ads6wtbvwzf6ubvg1itn1dklkvxq00ipw

Other than the flying replay (thanks, rng, ruining games since 1998), all these games were super close and extremely fun to play. While Urshifu-S did undeniable work in some of the replays, I don't think it caused games to become uncompetitive or unskillful. I see it as a really strong wallbreaker with a high skill ceiling, both when it comes to playing with and against Urshifu, and rewards the better player more often than not. I feel that banning Urshifu would be a mistake, because I want to continue playing against Urshifu teams in games like these (these games were all super fun to play! I haven't had a more consistent fun, competitive games in this tier for a while).
 
Thank you for your analysis ArkenCiel. I will give my own thoughts on these matches to contextualize a bit more the matches.

I notice you made a point about contribution and I think the reason why Urshifu didn't get to contribute as much (despite seeing from preview its effects) is because it simply wasn't played that way when it could have and should have. I think Showl from the start intended to sweep with Urshifu (I might be wrong and misjudged his plan), hence his reservation in sending it out. I believe the better approach in this game would have been to push Urshifu to create holes in the opposition's core, breaking it down slowly and methodically.
You are right, my gameplan was using Shifu as Late Game Sweeper. Knowing there were two scarfers in the opposite side and one with will-o, I prefered making progress through Valiant, especially as the purpose of its set is to clear the path for the other sweepers in the water MU. However, the other approach was probably a better way to play this game.

I think turn 14 where Showl sends out Valiant against Quagsire's EQ illustrates Showl's apprehension to use Urshifu because taking unnecessary damage on Valiant is obviously NOT desirable yet that was the response he went with. This single turn has long-lasting implications for the remainder of the game, ruins his positioning, and limits his ability to send Valiant out to only TWO more times when there are still FOUR more slower Pokemon it can do work against. I believe the better play here was to send Urshifu out vs Quagsire and pressure it with Wicked Blow while taking at most 32% from EQ. While nothing is guaranteed, Showl is in a MUCH MORE favorable position here. He can simply throw out a Wicked Blow to test the waters and see what you'll allow to get chipped instead and if Quagsire decides to Recover spam, Valiant could come in at any time with less risk of EQ which allows Valiant to preserve its HP while getting a kill. There are still plays to be made, yeah, but no other Pokemon in his team could have exerted the same kind of pressure to give him a position like that. I harped on that turn a lot because it was a critical moment but my thoughts aside that was actually a very enjoyable game.
You are indeed correct here as well. I expected a toxic rather than EQ and wanted to avoid to be statused on Shifu to allow it to finish the game properly. Moreover, even a weak EQ was enough to put Shifu in range of scarf H-Samurott. The chip on Valiant was however not so bad as you thought it was. With 2 scarfers and toxapex, he had limited ways to continue his job. I would even state that his job was mostly done once quag was KO. From there on, Zama could create holes with wild charge.

On turn 23, I could have stayed with Zama to finish directly rotom.

I would make a last comment on the decisive turn: Shifu vs Shifu. Given the current state of my team, I expected him to use surging strikes. Ex-post, it was better to sack Zama there and then kill toxapex with Valiant.

Anyway, I will conclude that my gameplan in this match did not let that much room for Shifu to shine

I spent too long on that one but moving onto the ground v fighting replay, this was actually quite one-sided because of the problem that the core of :Landorus-Therian::Clodsire: :Quagsire: presents to the Showl's team. Between those three Pokemon, not a single one from Showl's can break through... with the exception of Urshifu. Progress quite literally only began with Urshifu's entrance into the game. That's not a "broken" trait by any means but to say it had no contribution is false. Toxic really hampered its effectiveness and ideally the ground team is softened more before it takes it. That game will be tough to win and Showl would have to pull a double switch here and there to really get going but Urshifu's effect shouldn't be downplayed when it's the only one that can break up the core from simply switching into itself.
In this match, I did not expect BU Landorus which eventually lead me to lose the game. As this time I run ID Zama, my gameplan was to kill quag so Zama could finish the job. Shifu however did prove useful by considerably weakening the opposing team. Though, as your own replay shows it, Gallade is a much more prominent threat to ground than Shifu.

What is interesting though is that Shifu, while helping, is not supposed to be the MVP in this MU as ID Zama is expected to be on automode once Lando-I is weakened/KO and quag KO. Same goes for Band Zama which should be able to kill everything once they are chipped. Here, no Lando-I so things went a bit differently.

Against Flying, Shifu has much more room. This match showed how things can quickly go dire for Flying if Enamorus is lost early. Zapdos almost saved the day but AV Hands prevented it. Flying is definitely right now a good MU for Shifu. However Flying is to blame here. The issue is the lack of dark resisting mons. Any good dark sweeper would create holes in Flying Team. If I take dark as an example, spec Greninja would achieve a similar result than shifu, even better in some instances. Enamorus is the glue that holds Flying Teams which inevitably poses a big pressure on his shoulders.
 
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Vodoom

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was thinking to vote ban mainly to nerf Zamazenta (yes I honestly think Zamazenta needs a suspect test), but with how showl and xyz presented their arguments, i am leaning towards a "no ban". I also hope with future suspects that we get some council insight on what they think about the mon (from my knowledge some council members are leaning towards a no ban but an explanation from them would help in this thread).
P.S i know azick made a post but would like more engagement from the others.
 

DugZa

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